{"id":40745,"date":"2025-08-28T05:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-28T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/?p=40745"},"modified":"2025-08-28T06:22:20","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T13:22:20","slug":"stanford-confirms-quiet-erosion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2025\/08\/28\/stanford-confirms-quiet-erosion\/","title":{"rendered":"Stanford Confirms Quiet Erosion: The First Large-Scale Evidence of AI\u2019s Impact on Entry-Level Jobs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this week Stanford researchers Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen released a landmark paper: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/digitaleconomy.stanford.edu\/publications\/canaries-in-the-coal-mine\/\">Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For those of us tracking the labor-market impacts of generative AI, this study is a watershed moment. It provides the <strong>first large-scale, near real-time evidence<\/strong> that generative AI is reshaping employment \u2014 not through wages, but through the silent disappearance of entry-level jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><h2>Table of contents<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"#h-six-facts-stanford-found\" data-level=\"2\">Six Facts Stanford Found<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-why-this-matters-quiet-erosion-confirmed\" data-level=\"2\">Why This Matters: Quiet Erosion Confirmed<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-the-canaries-in-the-coal-mine\" data-level=\"2\">The Canaries in the Coal Mine<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-not-just-a-theory\" data-level=\"2\">Not Just a Theory<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-six-facts-stanford-found\">Six Facts Stanford Found<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/digitaleconomy.stanford.edu\/\">Stanford Digital Economy Lab<\/a> analyzed payroll records from ADP, covering millions of U.S. workers across thousands of firms. Here\u2019s what they found:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Young workers in exposed jobs are being displaced.<\/strong><br>Entry-level employees (ages 22\u201325) in AI-exposed fields like software engineering and customer service saw a <strong>13% relative decline in employment<\/strong> since late 2022, compared to stable or rising employment for older workers in the same roles.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-7.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"921\" height=\"1024\" data-src=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-7-921x1024.png\" alt=\"Employment trends for software developers and customer service workers by age group, showing a sharp 20% decline for 22\u201325-year-olds in AI-exposed roles while older cohorts remain stable or grow, illustrating early-career job erosion from generative AI.\" class=\"wp-image-40746 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-7-921x1024.png 921w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-7-270x300.png 270w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-7-768x854.png 768w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-7.png 607w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 921px) 100vw, 921px\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 921px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 921\/1024;\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Overall employment is still growing \u2014 but not for the young.<\/strong><br>For the economy as a whole, job growth remains robust. But for early-career workers, employment is stagnant.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"924\" height=\"1024\" data-src=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-924x1024.png\" alt=\"Employment changes by age and GPT-4 exposure level, showing divergence where 22\u201325-year-olds in highly AI-exposed occupations lose jobs while older workers continue employment growth, confirming generative AI\u2019s disproportionate impact on entry-level careers\" class=\"wp-image-40748 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-924x1024.png 924w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-271x300.png 271w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8-768x851.png 768w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-8.png 609w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 924px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 924\/1024;\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"3\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Automation hurts, augmentation helps.<\/strong><br>In jobs where AI substitutes for codified work, entry-level employment declines. But in occupations where AI augments human labor, employment for young workers remains stable or even increases.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-10-scaled.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"763\" height=\"1024\" data-src=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-10-763x1024.png\" alt=\"Employment changes by age group in occupations with high automation exposure, showing significant declines for 22\u201325-year-olds while older workers remain stable, illustrating how AI automation substitutes for entry-level labor.\" class=\"wp-image-40749 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-10-763x1024.png 763w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-10-223x300.png 223w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-10-768x1031.png 768w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-10-scaled.png 503w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 763px) 100vw, 763px\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 763px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 763\/1024;\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-9-scaled.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"792\" height=\"1024\" data-src=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-9-792x1024.png\" alt=\"Employment changes by age group in occupations where AI augments human work, showing stable or growing opportunities across all age groups, contrasting with declines seen in automation-heavy roles.\" class=\"wp-image-40747 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-9-792x1024.png 792w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-9-232x300.png 232w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-9-768x993.png 768w, https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-9-scaled.png 522w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 792px) 100vw, 792px\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 792px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 792\/1024;\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"4\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Not just tech-sector layoffs.<\/strong><br>The declines persist even after accounting for firm- or industry-level shocks like interest rates or the post-COVID tech correction. This is structural.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Headcount declines, not wages.<\/strong><br>Salaries have not meaningfully declined \u2014 instead, firms are cutting back on early-career hiring. Quiet erosion happens through missing opportunities, not pay cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Robust across occupations and industries.<\/strong><br>The same pattern appears beyond tech, and even in roles not amenable to remote work. In fact, health aides and less-exposed fields are growing faster for young workers.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-this-matters-quiet-erosion-confirmed\">Why This Matters: Quiet Erosion Confirmed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For nearly two years, we\u2019ve been using the term <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/09\/the-quiet-erosion-how-ve-economics-is-reshaping-the-future-of-work\/\">Quiet Erosion<\/a><\/strong> to describe how AI silently removes the on-ramps to professional careers. Unlike past technology shifts, which created new categories of entry-level work, generative AI appears to be <strong>eroding the bottom rungs of the career ladder<\/strong> while preserving opportunities for those with tacit, experience-based skills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stanford confirms this distinction. Their study explicitly notes that AI replaces \u201ccodified knowledge\u201d \u2014 the stuff of classrooms and textbooks \u2014 but not the tacit, hard-earned knowledge that comes only from years on the job. In other words:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Young workers are most vulnerable<\/strong> because their value-add is primarily codified knowledge.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Older workers are resilient<\/strong> because they hold tacit knowledge AI cannot yet replicate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is precisely the dynamic predicted in <em><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/02\/ve-economics-the-force-behind-salesforces-agentforce-revolution\/\">Virtual Employee Economics<\/a><\/em> by the <strong>Law of Cognitive Commoditization<\/strong>: codified skills are automated first, tacit skills last. And experienced workers aren&#8217;t even safe, according to the <strong>Law of Exponential Learning<\/strong> which predicts that AI producers will create self-improving Virtual Employees who will eventually codify the tribal knowledge which makes human workers flexible. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-canaries-in-the-coal-mine\">The Canaries in the Coal Mine<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The title of the Stanford paper \u2014 <em><strong>Canaries in the Coal Mine<\/strong><\/em> \u2014 is not just metaphorical. These declines among 22\u201325-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations are the <strong>first measurable signals<\/strong> of a deeper labor market shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Salesforce customers, partners, and ISVs, the implications are immediate:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Talent pipelines will narrow.<\/strong> Entry-level hiring in software development is under strain, making it harder to cultivate future experts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AI strategy must go beyond cost savings.<\/strong> Quiet erosion may hollow out critical skills unless companies invest in tacit knowledge transfer and augmentation strategies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The Intelligence Gradient is visible.<\/strong> Economic value is flowing away from codified entry-level tasks toward augmented and orchestration roles.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-not-just-a-theory\">Not Just a Theory<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Quiet Erosion is no longer just a theory. It is now <strong>backed by Stanford data at scale<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figures 1\u20133 in this paper should be circulated in every boardroom and policy forum concerned with the future of work. They show, in unmistakable detail, that the AI revolution has already begun to reshape the labor market \u2014 not with loud layoffs, but with the quiet erosion of entry-level opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The question for all of us is clear: <strong>Will we build new pathways for the next generation, or allow the entry ramp to white-collar careers to disappear?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-related-links yoast-seo-related-links\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2025\/01\/06\/is-your-job-next-the-shocking-truth-about-remote-work-and-ai\/\">Is Your Job Next? The Shocking Truth About Remote Work and AI<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/09\/the-quiet-erosion-how-ve-economics-is-reshaping-the-future-of-work\/\">The Quiet Erosion: How VE Economics is Reshaping the Future of Work<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2021\/05\/28\/dreamforce-is-on-and-salesforce-earnings-are-historic\/\">Salesforce Earnings are Historic and Dreamforce 2021 is On<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2023\/05\/02\/salesforces-anypoint-api-experience-hub-promises-easy-api-adoption\/\">Salesforce\u2019s Anypoint API Experience Hub Promises Easy API Adoption<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2022\/01\/28\/from-devops-heroics-to-excellence-ian-gotts-keenan-vision-podcast-episode-3-january-28-2022\/\">From Devops Heroics to Excellence &#8211; Ian Gotts &#8211; Keenan Vision Podcast Episode 3 January 28, 2022<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earlier this week Stanford researchers Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen released a landmark paper: Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":40751,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"post_series":[],"class_list":["post-40745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry-news","entry","has-media"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stanford Confirms Quiet Erosion: The First Large-Scale Evidence of AI\u2019s Impact on Entry-Level Jobs - SalesforceDevops.net<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new Stanford study has strongest evidence yet that AI is driving Quiet Erosion in the labor market with significant entry-level job losses.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2025\/08\/28\/stanford-confirms-quiet-erosion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stanford Confirms Quiet Erosion: The First Large-Scale Evidence of AI\u2019s Impact on Entry-Level Jobs - 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