{"id":40322,"date":"2024-12-30T11:58:10","date_gmt":"2024-12-30T19:58:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/?p=40322"},"modified":"2024-12-30T11:58:13","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T19:58:13","slug":"why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the Prophets of AI Doom Got It Wrong (For Now)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">There is a truism in life: nothing lasts forever. This must eventually become true for the current generative AI technology wave as well. Eventually, gravity will rule the day\u2014when some key promise in AI, announced by a globally famous technology CEO, falls flat, prompting skeptics to exclaim: \u201cI told you so!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, certain observers have already started proclaiming that \u201cAI Winter 2025\u201d is on its way\u2014citing hype fatigue, ballooning capital expenditures, and the apparent \u201cscaling walls\u201d of model architectures. However, gigantic forces are converging to ensure that the so-called AI Winter of 2025 looks more like a sweltering summer in the AI tropics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><h2>Table of contents<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"#h-the-mysterious-payback-model\" data-level=\"2\">The Mysterious Payback Model<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-agi-systems-become-real\" data-level=\"2\">AGI Systems Become Real<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-virtual-employees-take-center-stage\" data-level=\"2\">Virtual Employees Take Center Stage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-why-ai-winter-is-far-off\" data-level=\"2\">Why AI Winter Is Far Off<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#h-enterprise-demand-for-efficiency\" data-level=\"3\">Enterprise Demand for Efficiency<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-exponential-vs-architectural-breakthroughs\" data-level=\"3\">Exponential vs. Architectural Breakthroughs<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-new-revenue-models\" data-level=\"3\">New Revenue Models<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-no-single-winter\" data-level=\"3\">No Single Winter<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-welcome-to-the-summer-of-ai\" data-level=\"2\">Welcome to the Summer of AI<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-mysterious-payback-model\">The Mysterious Payback Model<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The recent wave of doubt began when analysts added up the capital being poured into frontier AI models. Annual investments have crossed <strong>$100 billion<\/strong> and could skyrocket to <strong>$350 billion<\/strong>\u2014with the first <strong>gigawatt-scale<\/strong> data centers already on the drawing board. The numbers simply don\u2019t add up if you rely on <strong>traditional<\/strong> software business models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Critics therefore ask: <strong>Where is the payback?<\/strong> The market sees massive R&amp;D outlays from the likes of OpenAI, Microsoft, Facebook, and Google, but many are skeptical these companies can recoup those investments in a timely manner. Fueling the skepticism is the alleged \u201cwall\u201d that marquee AI players (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic) appear to be hitting with scaling laws. Add in the widely publicized issues of <strong>\u201challucinations\u201d<\/strong> and <strong>fabrications<\/strong>, and it\u2019s easy for doubters to predict an AI downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet that dire view has been forced to the sidelines more recently, thanks to two phenomena:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) systems<\/strong> that continue to make surprising strides.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The burgeoning world of <strong>Virtual Employees (VEs)<\/strong> that promise an entirely new revenue and adoption model.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-agi-systems-become-real\">AGI Systems Become Real<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Major AI lab researchers have long considered how to address the limitations of <strong>large language models (LLMs)<\/strong>\u2014and they\u2019re moving on from a purely \u201cscale-it-up\u201d philosophy to more creative architectures. Enter the so-called \u201cslow thinking\u201d or <strong>step-by-step<\/strong> AGI systems. These approaches blend LLMs with other algorithms that <strong>\u201cchunk\u201d<\/strong> tasks into smaller pieces, applying iterative reasoning until a solution emerges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">OpenAI\u2019s new system, nicknamed <strong>\u201co3,\u201d<\/strong> is one of the poster children of this approach. It purportedly <strong>solves math benchmarks<\/strong> at a level only achievable by a small number of humans, building on earlier iterative-thinking models like <strong>\u201co1.\u201d<\/strong> Early users\u2014research scientists among them\u2014claim it has provided <strong>unique insights and critiques<\/strong> of their own work that they had not considered before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If these developments are any indication, the <strong>frontier model makers<\/strong> are nowhere near slowing down. Indeed, like the leaps we witnessed in early 2023, we could see another <strong>exponential surge<\/strong> in AI\u2019s capabilities in 2025, thanks to these new AGI techniques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-virtual-employees-take-center-stage\">Virtual Employees Take Center Stage<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perhaps the more immediate commercial breakthrough is the proliferation of <strong>AI agents<\/strong> or <strong>Virtual Employees (VEs)<\/strong>. These are software-based \u201cworkers\u201d that perform entire job roles\u2014like <strong>sales development reps (SDRs)<\/strong> or <strong>customer support agents (CSRs)<\/strong>\u2014rather than just assisting with tasks. Powered by next-generation AGI systems, VEs can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Coordinate complex workflows<\/strong> using step-by-step reasoning.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Accumulate knowledge<\/strong> from shared databases that are automatically curated as they work.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Interface seamlessly with enterprise software<\/strong>\u2014think Salesforce, cloud-based ERPs, and marketing automation platforms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you <a href=\"http:\/\/192.168.40.21\/index.php\/2024\/12\/17\/benioff-unplugged-agentforce-2-0-the-ai-revolution-isnt-coming-its-here\/\">listen to <strong>Marc Benioff<\/strong><\/a> and other IT luminaries, they\u2019re already talking about <strong>offering digital labor<\/strong> to run the very software businesses are buying. This shift in the conversation is telling. Once top technology execs seriously explore offering entire \u201cvirtual departments\u201d to their enterprise customers, a new economic engine emerges\u2014one that turns all that R&amp;D investment into a subscription-based or usage-based service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-ai-winter-is-far-off\">Why AI Winter Is Far Off<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here are some of the reasons why the AI Winter of 2025 won&#8217;t happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-enterprise-demand-for-efficiency\">Enterprise Demand for Efficiency<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Labor costs, talent shortages, and performance pressures drive businesses toward AI-driven automation. As soon as VEs show solid ROI\u2014especially for highly repetitive or standardized tasks\u2014adoption could scale much faster than historical tech hype cycles predict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-exponential-vs-architectural-breakthroughs\">Exponential vs. Architectural Breakthroughs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even if raw \u201cscaling laws\u201d for large language models appear to plateau, more <strong>\u201carchitectural\u201d<\/strong> innovations (like slow thinking, multi-agent systems, or domain-specific AI frameworks) could <strong>unlock fresh leaps<\/strong> in functionality and reliability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-revenue-models\">New Revenue Models<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead of purely licensing AI software, tech vendors are shifting to usage-based or <strong>\u201cdigital labor\u201d<\/strong> models, which may prove far more lucrative than standard software sales. These new models help justify the massive datacenter and R&amp;D investments because they scale with usage\u2014not just upfront license deals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-no-single-winter\">No Single Winter<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Past AI winters often followed a pattern: hype, unmet promise, disillusionment. But we\u2019re in a period where AI is <em>already<\/em> being used in mission-critical workflows\u2014call centers, SDLC tools, content generation, code generation. The question is not whether it will be used, but how pervasive it will become.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-welcome-to-the-summer-of-ai\">Welcome to the Summer of AI<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The notion that AI is about to hit a wall might have been more credible if we hadn\u2019t already seen real-world traction: from ubiquitous chatbots to the slow-thinking AGI breakthroughs and the emerging Virtual Employees. Yes, <strong>nothing lasts forever<\/strong>\u2014but it\u2019s equally true that <strong>markets and technologies can evolve<\/strong> in ways that far outpace old assumptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When we consider <strong>AGI\u2019s<\/strong> steady progress and the lucrative potential of <strong>VE-driven<\/strong> enterprise models, the grand \u201cAI Winter of 2025\u201d starts to sound less like a blizzard and more like a day at the beach. Instead, we may just be entering a <strong>season of accelerated innovation<\/strong>, fueled by the very forces some analysts once dismissed as hype.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-related-links yoast-seo-related-links\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/192.168.40.21\/index.php\/2022\/10\/31\/flosum-adds-demerge-domain-security-trust-center-accelq-and-veeva-in-winter-release-2023\/\">Flosum Adds Demerge, Domain Security, Trust Center, ACCELQ, and Veeva in Winter Release 2023<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/192.168.40.21\/index.php\/2022\/01\/11\/flosum-debuts-winter-21-release\/\">Flosum Debuts Winter \u201921 Release<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/192.168.40.21\/index.php\/2024\/11\/19\/the-rise-of-virtual-employees\/\">The Rise of Virtual Employees: A New Enterprise Software Paradigm Emerges<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/192.168.40.21\/index.php\/2023\/07\/10\/is-platform-engineering-the-new-salesforce-devops\/\">Is Platform Engineering the New Salesforce Devops?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/192.168.40.21\/index.php\/2024\/10\/17\/silicon-valleys-quiet-embrace-of-the-virtual-employee\/\">Silicon Valley\u2019s Quiet Embrace of the Virtual Employee<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is a truism in life: nothing lasts forever. This must eventually become true for the current generative AI technology wave as well. Eventually, gravity will rule the day\u2014when some&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":40325,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1919,1918,1917,1920,1722],"post_series":[],"class_list":["post-40322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry-analysis","tag-agi-breakthroughs","tag-ai-innovation","tag-ai-winter-2025","tag-economic-transformation","tag-virtual-employees","entry","has-media"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.9 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why the Prophets of AI Doom Got It Wrong (For Now) - SalesforceDevops.net<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Why the &#039;AI Winter 2025&#039; is unlikely, with AGI breakthroughs and Virtual Employees driving innovation and economic change.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the Prophets of AI Doom Got It Wrong (For Now) - SalesforceDevops.net\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Why the &#039;AI Winter 2025&#039; is unlikely, with AGI breakthroughs and Virtual Employees driving innovation and economic change.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SalesforceDevops.net\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/salesforcedevopsnet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-30T19:58:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-12-30T19:58:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"686\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Vernon Keenan\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@salesforcedevop\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@salesforcedevop\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Vernon Keenan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"TechArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Vernon Keenan\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f681893c994bc40406bb391546cd7ac8\"},\"headline\":\"Why the Prophets of AI Doom Got It Wrong (For Now)\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-12-30T19:58:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-12-30T19:58:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1021,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp\",\"keywords\":[\"AGI breakthroughs\",\"AI innovation\",\"AI Winter 2025\",\"economic transformation\",\"Virtual Employees\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Industry Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2024\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#organization\"},\"accessibilityFeature\":[\"tableOfContents\"]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/\",\"name\":\"Why the Prophets of AI Doom Got It Wrong (For Now) - SalesforceDevops.net\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-12-30T19:58:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-12-30T19:58:13+00:00\",\"description\":\"Why the 'AI Winter 2025' is unlikely, with AGI breakthroughs and Virtual Employees driving innovation and economic change.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/30\\\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/12\\\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":686,\"caption\":\"symbolic depiction of AI innovation transitioning from a barren \\\"AI Winter\\\" to a vibrant, thriving landscape\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/\",\"name\":\"SalesforceDevops.net\",\"description\":\"Elevating Salesforce Devops with Insights and Innovation\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"SalesforceDevops.net\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/03\\\/7760e9c16fc75961659174739887197e-sticker.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/03\\\/7760e9c16fc75961659174739887197e-sticker.png\",\"width\":421,\"height\":421,\"caption\":\"SalesforceDevops.net\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/salesforcedevopsnet\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/salesforcedevop\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/vernonkeenan\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.youtube.com\\\/channel\\\/UCOgOn9rD5gyXSOmV7-Q0n7g\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f681893c994bc40406bb391546cd7ac8\",\"name\":\"Vernon Keenan\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/f1183f1ebb5c059e052825760f95b25244abc5ef832145327f298f3697f980c7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/f1183f1ebb5c059e052825760f95b25244abc5ef832145327f298f3697f980c7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/f1183f1ebb5c059e052825760f95b25244abc5ef832145327f298f3697f980c7?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Vernon Keenan\"},\"description\":\"Vernon Keenan (LinkedIn) works as a senior information technology industry consultant based in Oakland, California. He earned his B.Sc. in Biomedical Engineering at Northwestern University where he programmed a PDP-8 with punched paper tape. In his 34-year-long career he has been a teacher, SPSS programmer, database administrator, clinical researcher, technology journalist, product marketing manager, market researcher, management consultant, and industry analyst. Most recently he is a telecom operator, cloud architect, Go devops engineer and Salesforce Developer\\\/Architect. For inquiries about Salesforce strategy briefings or solution architect work please contact Vern directly at +1-510-679-1900 or vern@vernonkeenan.com.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/ceres-gw.tnxs.net\",\"https:\\\/\\\/linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/vernonkeenan\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/salesforcedevop\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/salesforcedevops.net\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/vern\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Why the Prophets of AI Doom Got It Wrong (For Now) - SalesforceDevops.net","description":"Why the 'AI Winter 2025' is unlikely, with AGI breakthroughs and Virtual Employees driving innovation and economic change.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Why the Prophets of AI Doom Got It Wrong (For Now) - SalesforceDevops.net","og_description":"Why the 'AI Winter 2025' is unlikely, with AGI breakthroughs and Virtual Employees driving innovation and economic change.","og_url":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/","og_site_name":"SalesforceDevops.net","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/salesforcedevopsnet","article_published_time":"2024-12-30T19:58:10+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-12-30T19:58:13+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":686,"url":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp","type":"image\/webp"}],"author":"Vernon Keenan","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@salesforcedevop","twitter_site":"@salesforcedevop","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Vernon Keenan","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"TechArticle","@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/"},"author":{"name":"Vernon Keenan","@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#\/schema\/person\/f681893c994bc40406bb391546cd7ac8"},"headline":"Why the Prophets of AI Doom Got It Wrong (For Now)","datePublished":"2024-12-30T19:58:10+00:00","dateModified":"2024-12-30T19:58:13+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/"},"wordCount":1021,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp","keywords":["AGI breakthroughs","AI innovation","AI Winter 2025","economic transformation","Virtual Employees"],"articleSection":["Industry Analysis"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/#respond"]}],"copyrightYear":"2024","copyrightHolder":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#organization"},"accessibilityFeature":["tableOfContents"]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/","url":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/","name":"Why the Prophets of AI Doom Got It Wrong (For Now) - SalesforceDevops.net","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp","datePublished":"2024-12-30T19:58:10+00:00","dateModified":"2024-12-30T19:58:13+00:00","description":"Why the 'AI Winter 2025' is unlikely, with AGI breakthroughs and Virtual Employees driving innovation and economic change.","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/why-the-prophets-of-ai-doom-got-it-wrong-for-now\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp","width":1200,"height":686,"caption":"symbolic depiction of AI innovation transitioning from a barren \"AI Winter\" to a vibrant, thriving landscape"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#website","url":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/","name":"SalesforceDevops.net","description":"Elevating Salesforce Devops with Insights and Innovation","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#organization","name":"SalesforceDevops.net","url":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/7760e9c16fc75961659174739887197e-sticker.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/7760e9c16fc75961659174739887197e-sticker.png","width":421,"height":421,"caption":"SalesforceDevops.net"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/salesforcedevopsnet","https:\/\/x.com\/salesforcedevop","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/vernonkeenan","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCOgOn9rD5gyXSOmV7-Q0n7g"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/#\/schema\/person\/f681893c994bc40406bb391546cd7ac8","name":"Vernon Keenan","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f1183f1ebb5c059e052825760f95b25244abc5ef832145327f298f3697f980c7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f1183f1ebb5c059e052825760f95b25244abc5ef832145327f298f3697f980c7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/f1183f1ebb5c059e052825760f95b25244abc5ef832145327f298f3697f980c7?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Vernon Keenan"},"description":"Vernon Keenan (LinkedIn) works as a senior information technology industry consultant based in Oakland, California. He earned his B.Sc. in Biomedical Engineering at Northwestern University where he programmed a PDP-8 with punched paper tape. In his 34-year-long career he has been a teacher, SPSS programmer, database administrator, clinical researcher, technology journalist, product marketing manager, market researcher, management consultant, and industry analyst. Most recently he is a telecom operator, cloud architect, Go devops engineer and Salesforce Developer\/Architect. For inquiries about Salesforce strategy briefings or solution architect work please contact Vern directly at +1-510-679-1900 or vern@vernonkeenan.com.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ceres-gw.tnxs.net","https:\/\/linkedin.com\/in\/vernonkeenan","https:\/\/x.com\/salesforcedevop"],"url":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/author\/vern\/"}]}},"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp",1200,686,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--150x150.webp",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--300x171.webp",300,171,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--768x439.webp",768,439,true],"large":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--1024x585.webp",980,560,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--1536x878.webp",1536,878,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp",1200,686,false],"lightbox":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp",1200,686,false],"search_results":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled-125x125.webp",125,125,true],"blog_entry":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp",750,429,false],"blog_post":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp",750,429,false],"blog_post_full":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp",1200,686,false],"blog_related":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp",1200,686,false],"gallery":["https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/DALL\u00b7E-2024-12-30-11.46.37-A-symbolic-depiction-of-AI-innovation-as-a-vibrant-summer-landscape.-On-one-side-a-barren-winter-landscape-with-frosted-trees-and-a-cold-icy-ground--scaled.webp",1200,686,false]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Vernon Keenan","author_link":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/author\/vern\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"There is a truism in life: nothing lasts forever. This must eventually become true for the current generative AI technology wave as well. Eventually, gravity will rule the day\u2014when some&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40322"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40330,"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40322\/revisions\/40330"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40322"},{"taxonomy":"post_series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/salesforcedevops.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post_series?post=40322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}